Research

Work In progress

Social Priors and the Informational Multiplier: The Hidden Costs of Coarse Social Information

Can the data people use to infer opportunity help create the disparities they seem to reveal? This paper studies how people infer opportunity from socially generated data when participation is endogenous. Agents understand equilibrium selection into risky tasks, but the public statistic they observe may be too coarse to identify group-specific returns separately from participation and selection. In that case, the statistic itself becomes an equilibrium object: beliefs shape participation, participation shapes the data, and the data feed back into beliefs. An informational multiplier characterizes whether this feedback is self-correcting or self-reinforcing. When the multiplier is large, temporary shocks generate path-dependent disparities even across identical groups. The framework provides a theory of endogenous social statistics and clarifies how policy can target not only opportunities, but also the social learning environment through which opportunities are inferred and reproduced.

Choice Architecture in the Age of AI: The Algorithmic Amplification of Behavioural Biases and its Implications for Policy

Imitation and Adaptation: How Social Context Shapes Learning Trajectories (with Rebecca Heath), Awarded Keynes Fund Standard Grant

Leadership and Self-Censorship: An Organizational View (with Alex Chan and Clement Minaudier), Awarded Keynes Fund Standard Grant

Working Papers

Optimal Self-Screening and the Persistence of Identity-Driven Choices, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2274/ Janeway Institute Working Paper Series 2232

Multidimensional Social Identities and Choice Behavior: The Pitfalls and Opportunities Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2379 / Janeway Institute Working Paper Series 2321

Video Presentation – Janeway Institute Cambridge

Publications

De nieuwe DNB conjunctuur indicator voorspelt afvlakking groei in 2019 (The New Dutch Central Bank Business Cycle Indicator Predicts decrease in Economic Growth for 2019) with Bas Butler and Maikel Volkerink, Economisch Statistisch Bulletin, Feb 28 (2019)