Research

Work In progress

Social Priors and the Informational Multiplier: The Hidden Costs of Success-Only Information (Draft coming soon)

This paper studies self-selection into risky tasks, where individuals form beliefs about their probability of success. Agents combine private signals with socially observed group-level outcomes. We introduce a social prior as a decomposition of Bayesian updating: social data determine beliefs about group-level returns, which shape how private signals are interpreted. Embedding this in an equilibrium model, beliefs determine participation, which in turn generates the social data observed by others. When participation is unobserved, social data become endogenous through a belief-behavior feedback loop. This generates an informational multiplier that can amplify temporary shocks, produce self-fulfilling participation gaps across otherwise identical groups, and magnify existing differences. As a result, persistent disparities can arise even under fully rational behavior and need not reflect differences in ability, costs, or opportunities. The strength of this feedback is governed by the interaction of the informational environment, the choice environment, and group characteristics, yielding novel policy implications.

Choice Architecture in the age of AI: The Algorithmic Amplification of Behavioural Biases and its Implications for Policy

Imitation and Adaptation: How Social Context Shapes Learning Trajectories (with Rebecca Heath), Awarded Keynes Fund Standard Grant

Leadership and Self-Censorship: An Organizational View (with Alex Chan and Clement Minaudier), Awarded Keynes Fund Standard Grant

Working Papers

Optimal Self-Screening and the Persistence of Identity-Driven Choices, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2274/ Janeway Institute Working Paper Series 2232

Multidimensional Social Identities and Choice Behavior: The Pitfalls and Opportunities Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2379 / Janeway Institute Working Paper Series 2321

Video Presentation – Janeway Institute Cambridge

Publications

De nieuwe DNB conjunctuur indicator voorspelt afvlakking groei in 2019 (The New Dutch Central Bank Business Cycle Indicator Predicts decrease in Economic Growth for 2019) with Bas Butler and Maikel Volkerink, Economisch Statistisch Bulletin, Feb 28 (2019)